Демографический вызов для России

Центр стратегических разработок (ЦСР) совместно с Высшей школой экономики (ВШЭ) представил доклад, посвященный грядущим демографическим вызовам России. По прогнозам исследователей, к 2035 году естественная убыль населения в РФ может составить 400 тыс. человек, а при более пессимистичном сценарии и 1 млн человек.



В докладе приводятся прогнозы ООН по росту численности населения разных стран. Согласно этим прогнозам, к 2050 году численность населения России может сократиться с нынешних 143 млн до 129 млн человек. Причем с нынешнего девятого места в мире по этому показателю Российская Федерация может переместиться к тому времени на 15 место, пропустив вперед такие страны, как Танзания, Филиппины, Мексика.

По мнению авторов доклада ЦСР, происходящие в демографической сфере России изменения носят объективный и закономерный характер. В этой связи политика государства должна состоять не в том, чтобы противостоять неизбежным переменам, а в том, чтобы наилучшим образом приспособиться к ним.

В докладе, в частности, говорится о продолжающемся сокращении населения азиатской части страны и смещения его с востока на запад. «Смещение населения на запад страны отражает конкуренцию регионов за людские ресурсы в условиях их явного дефицита», — отмечают эксперты.

Руководитель исследования, директор Института демографии ВШЭ Анатолий Вишневский, представляя доклад, выделил семь групп вызовов для современной России. Первый и главный из них — недонаселенность страны. Если в 1950 году население Российской Федерации составляло 103 млн человек, то к 1992 году оно увеличилось до 148,6 млн человек, то есть за 42 года выросло почти в полтора раза. Последующие двадцать лет, с 1993 года и вплоть до 2013 года, оно непрерывно сокращалось за счет естественной убыли, восполняясь частично только за счет миграции.

При этом Вишневский отметил, что, вопреки досужим утверждениям, статистика показывает такие данные: вплоть до 2007 года частичная компенсация естественной убыли России почти на 70% шла за счет славянского населения бывших республик СССР, переезжавшего после распада страны в РФ. После 2007 года этот источник компенсации естественной убыли иссяк, и сегодня миграционное восполнение потерь населения России идет уже за счет других этнических групп населения, также прибывающего главным образом из стран, ранее входивших в состав СССР.

Возобновившийся в 2013 году естественный прирост населения РФ «был очень маленьким, и у него нет будущего, поскольку по официальным прогнозам он скоро прекратится», — сказал эксперт. Собственно, это уже произошло в 2016 году. При этом по прогнозам ООН численность населения России в обозримом будущем будет даже ниже, чем по прогнозам Росстата.

Проблема еще и в том, что в России не хватает крупных городов. Настоящий мегаполис мирового уровня у нас всего один — 12-миллионная Москва, плюс пятимиллионный Санкт-Петербург. Всего же в Российской Федерации 15 городов-миллионеров, причем лишь три из них за Уралом. Все это очень мало для такой огромной страны, как Россия.

Еще одним демографическим вызовом авторы доклада называют структурные изменения российской демографии. Население России, как, впрочем, и многих других развитых и среднеразвитых стран, стареет. Но если в нулевых годах доля людей в трудоспособном возрасте понемногу росла, то после 2012 года началось ее сокращение. Такой продолжающийся спад численности трудоспособного населения «не имеет прецедентов в прошлом», говорится в докладе.

Еще три демографических вызова — снижение рождаемости, высокая смертность и миграция. По мнению Вишневского, на смертность и миграцию общество может воздействовать рядом мер. Например, увеличивая финансирование системы здравоохранения (на которую в РФ приходится всего 3,5% ВВП, что в разы ниже не только, чем в странах ЕС, США и Канады, но даже чем в Турции и Бразилии — 4,7% ВВП в обоих этих государствах). Однако возможности влияния государства на рождаемость минимальны.

В частности, на примере «материнского капитала» можно проследить, что эта мера существенно повлияла на рождаемость лишь в 2007 году, когда она была впервые анонсирована и использована. Низкая рождаемость естественна для современной России, как и для других стран такого уровня развития, считает Вишневский. По его мнению, «число женщин детородного возраста будет быстро сокращаться, и мы никогда не вернемся к такой рождаемости, как прежде».

Эксперт также обратил внимание на такую известную проблему, как недостаточная борьба с высокой смертностью среди мужчин. По этому показателю Россия сегодня «не достигла даже уровня 1960-х годов», — отметил специалист.

Однако основная особенность демографической политики страны состоит в том, что до сих пор «нет внятного ответа на вопрос: нужны ли России люди», — констатирует эксперт. По его мнению, на сегодняшний день единственный существенный резерв восполнения естественной убыли населения — это миграция. Однако внутренних демографических ресурсов в стране уже нет. Особенно это касается Дальнего Востока, где «без мигрантов извне и их натурализации решить задачу пополнения его населения невозможно».

Заместитель директора Института демографии ВШЭ Сергей Захаров поставил под вопрос качество российских статистических данных. Он напомнил, что в 2016 году и ранее «произошли большие изменения в системе регистрации рождения и смертей». Демографические события стали регистрировать либо по месту наступления, либо по месту проживания. Причем вначале давали приоритет в регистрации первому варианту, а теперь второму. Таким образом, демографические показатели меняются «только потому, что меняется система их регистрации», — отмечает он.

По словам заместителя директора Института мировой экономики и международных отношений РАН Евгения Гонтмахера, «несмотря на призывы ЦСР увеличить финансирование и качество здравоохранения, мы видим, что процессы здесь идут в обратном направлении, и если российская статистика будет работать добросовестно, то смертность у нас будет увеличиваться».

Выход из этой ситуации, по мнению Анатолия Вишневского, состоит в том, чтобы Россия «открылась миру». Между тем, «в общественно-политическом дискурсе в России, как и во многих других странах, принимающих мигрантов, постоянно подчеркиваются связанные с массовой иммиграцией риски — социальных напряжений и конфликтов, разрушения культурной идентичности коренного населения и т. п. Эти риски, безусловно, существуют, однако все они вытекают не из каких-то врожденных качеств мигрантов, а из их недостаточной интегрированности в принимающее общество», — говорится в докладе ЦСР.


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2017-11-19

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